In 2027,the production capacity of HBM will be fully exhausted

Recently,the three original factories have successively completed the annual capacity allocation negotiations in 2027,and the production capacity of DRAM and high-bandwidth memory(HBM)has been sold out in advance.Although the supply and demand pressure of NAND Flash is slightly less than that of DRAM,it is estimated that by the end of August 2026,the production capacity of NAND Flash will also be booked out.At present,regardless of whether a long-term agreement(LTA)is signed,downstream customers generally accept and cooperate with the original factory to pay the deposit in advance.This situation confirms the prediction that 2027 will be"the year with the most shortage of memory supply",but the industry expects that the price increase of subsequent products will tend to ease.

 

Driven by the strong demand for AI computing power,the pattern of memory supply and demand has been fundamentally reversed.At present,major original factories have successively locked LTA supply contracts with key customers for three to five years,which indicates that the memory industry is gradually getting rid of the shackles of the traditional standard cycle and accelerating its entry into the long-term seller market.

 

Limited by the actual production capacity,the original factory usually only reaches 60%-70%of the original factory's planned target.Under the premise of limited total production capacity,the original factory gives priority to ensuring the orders of cloud service providers(CSP)and AI head enterprises,thus obviously squeezing the traditional consumer terminal field.It is estimated that in 2027,the DRAM rationing quota that mobile phone and PC manufacturers can obtain will be significantly reduced compared with that in 2026.

Keywords:HBM